Monday, March 25, 2013

News update 25/03/2013

News update 25/03/2013


Καλημέρα σας.

I attach a very brief selection of news below about last night's events. The dust has not settled yet, so it's too early to make conclusions.

I have also taken the liberty to include the psychological theory of Kubler Ross, which addresses the 5 stages of grief, following the loss of a loved one or a strong life shock, this case economic. 

Cyprus society, including ourselves, will be going through these stages, and I believe it's important to find coping mechanisms to address these as well as help those around us.

Regards,
Loukas

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Detail of EU/IMF bailout agreement with Cyprus

Following is the detail of the deal in a statement from euro zone finance ministers.

1. Laiki will be resolved immediately - with full contribution of equity shareholders, bond holders and uninsured depositors - based on a decision by the Central Bank of Cyprus, using the newly adopted Bank Resolution Framework.

2. Laiki will be split into a good bank and a bad bank. The bad bank will be run down over time.

3. The good bank will be folded into Bank of Cyprus (BoC), using the Bank Resolution Framework, after having heard the Boards of Directors of BoC and Laiki. It will take 9 billion Euros of ELA with it. Only uninsured deposits in BoC will remain frozen until recapitalization has been effected, and may subsequently be subject to appropriate conditions.

4. The Governing Council of the ECB will provide liquidity to the BoC in line with applicable rules.

5. BoC will be recapitalized through a deposit/equity conversion of uninsured deposits with full contribution of equity shareholders and bond holders.

6. The conversion will be such that a capital ratio of 9 % is secured by the end of the program.

7. All insured depositors in all banks will be fully protected in accordance with the relevant EU legislation.

8. The program money (up to 10 billion Euros) will not be used to recapitalize Laiki and Bank of Cyprus.



Discussion paper on the debt write-down tool – bail-in

An paper from the EU which outlines the basic thinking of EU behind bailing in deposits in banks in order not to rely on tax payers to save the banking systems.

Last-minute Cyprus deal to close bank, force losses
Cyprus clinched a last-ditch deal with international lenders to shut down its second-largest bank and inflict heavy losses on uninsured depositors, including wealthy Russians, in return for a 10 billion euro (8 billion pounds) bailout.


Cyprus: It’s not over yet


Kubler Ross - The 5 stages of grief

The stages an individual goes through following a strong shock like death of family member, illness,  or the current strong financial shock.

(1) Denial — "I feel fine."; "This can't be happening, not to me."
(2) Anger — "Why me? It's not fair!"; "How can this happen to me?"; '"Who is to blame?"
(3) Bargaining — "I'll do anything for a few more years."; "I will give my life savings if..."
(4) Depression — "I'm so sad, why bother with anything?"; "I'm going to die soon so what's the point?"; "I am broke" 
(5) Acceptance — "It's going to be okay."; "This is my current reality, I may as well work through it."


I believe that Cyprus society is somewhere between (2) and (3) right now.
(2) Severe anger with those who caused all this
(3) Search for alternative solutions, possible impossible at this stage, which might take us out of the pain we are in regardless of the cost - for example a fire-sale of Natural Gas to Chinese, Russians, Americans or return to the pound, not considering the real costs of a disorderly default.

News 25/03/2013 2:00 am - a bitter sweet victory

 News 25/03/2013 2:00 am - a bitter sweet victory


Eurogroup has reached an agreement with Cyprus. The details that are available as of this time are as follows:

1)     Restructure Laiki bank, safeguarding deposits < 100k
2)     Bank of Cyprus is not restructured but a levy on deposits > 100k of 30% will take place
3)     ELA from Laiki is “iced” (no further details at this time)
4)     Possible further small haircut on remaining banks to safeguard provident funds.

Tough measures following a very difficult negotiation. Troika got what they wanted…

I will let you know when further information is available.

News update 24/03/2013 - evening update

News update 24/03/2013 - evening update
 
Σκληρό πόκερ απο τον πρόεδρο Αναστασιάδη απόψε. 

Ακυρώνοντας την πώληση των παραρτημάτων των 2 τραπεζών στην Ελλάδα, όπως φημολογείται, μεταφέρει το πρόβλημα και στα εκεί παραρτήματα των κυπριακών τραπεζών, θέτοντας σε κίνδυνο την σταθερότητα του ευρώ. (Systemic risk)

Ακολουθά την στρατηγική που ακολούθησε η Ισλανδία, με τη μή πληρωμή ξένων καταθέσεων ICESAVE, το κόστος των οποίων αναλάβαν οι κυβερνήσεις Ολλανδίας και Αγγλίας.

Desperate times call for desperate measures, όπως λένε και οι ξένοι.

Προσπαθεί να αντιμετωπίσει την απαίτηση της Lagarde για μεταφορά του ELA (liability) της Λαϊκής στην καλή τράπεζα (Τράπεζα Κύπρου), διακινδυνεύοντας έτσι την σταθερότητα και της καινούριας καλής τράπεζας.


News articles in brief:


The Icelandisation of Cyprus - ICESAVE model


Well, it looks as if the Icelandization of Cyprus — at least in the sense of making offshore depositors take a big hit — is happening faster and more decisively than I feared. 

**MUST READ**
ELA: Πώς φτάσαμε ως εδώ...(και πού πάμε τώρα) 


Cyprus must avoid capital controls


This would be equivalent to Argentina’s “corralito”, which lasted a year in 2001/2002. If capital controls are imposed, it will be almost impossible to lift them because people will stampede for the exits once they are removed. But such heavy-handed rationing of limited cash would clobber an economy which is already heading for a slump.


Former Cyprus Central Bank Head And Senior Fed Economist: "The European Project Is Crashing To Earth"

News update 24/03/2013

News update 24/03/2013

Καλημέρα σε όλους.

Our president and the negotiating team are facing stiff resistance from Troika during these negotiations. It seems that the future of Bank of Cyprus and the % allocation of the levy are probably major sticking points.

By restructuring the two largest banks, if it comes down to that, and blocking all the accounts over €100k into a lengthy recovery process, business activity on the island will be suffocated as most major businesses probably had their accounts and savings with one or the other bank.

Our future will be decided at tonight’s Eurogroup, which will be attended by Christine Lagarde from the IMF as well.


Today’s news  24/03/2013:

Cyprus seeks 11th-hour deal to avert meltdown

Facing a Monday deadline to avert a collapse of the Cypriot banking system, talks in Nicosia to seal a bailout from the EU and International Monetary Fund broke up late on Saturday without result.
"Negotiations are at a very delicate phase," the Cypriot government said in a statement.
"The situation is very difficult and the deadlines are very tight," it said. Anastasiades will arrive in Brussels in the mid-morning to continue the talks, it said.


Cyprus: The Operation Was a Success. Shame the Patient Died.
An EXCELLENT write up with interesting conclusions

No human agency has achieved so much economic destruction in such a short time without the use of weapons.

His conclusion
The debt clean-out will help growth as it always has. But cold comfort for the people sacrificed by a toxic blend of European idealism and grotesque local incompetence


Cyprus crisis: UK experts fly out to advise on bailout


Cyprus faces decision time - but with a gun to its head

It looks like blackmail from the powerful against the weak, who are trying to do everything they can to keep going within the eurozone.
Christopher Pissarides


Don't Forget the Geopolitics of Cyprus - from Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO

IF the current crisis were to intensify to such an extent as to force Cyprus to leave the eurozone, look for it to turn to Russia for immediate financial assistance to stabilize what would likely be a very disorderly domestic situation. And IF this once-improbable (indeed, once-unthinkable) event were to materialize, expect Russia to be highly willing and very able to step into the chaos.

A greater strategic role in Cyprus would compensate Russia for its diminishing influence in Syria, another Mediterranean access point. Meanwhile, its involvement in the development of Cypriot gas fields would give it an even greater say in the supply of energy to western Europe.


Why Russian Oligarchs Are Laughing Off The Cyprus Haircut

According to Reuters, now that the oligarchs have moved out, its likely that upper middle class/entrepreneur types will feel most of the pain if the Cyprus tax is enacted.

News update 23/03/2013

News update 23/03/2013


Καλημέρα σε όλους,

Waking up from a nightmare … It’s a weekend to let the impact settle in, take stock of the situation, gather hope and move forward.

Remaining in the Eurozone allows us to have hope. This was a major achievement.


A very brief selection of articles for this morning:



Cyprus Approves Capital Controls as EU Ministers Prepare to Meet
President Nicos Anastasiades is trying to end a week-long impasse that is starting to threaten the country’s membership in the euro. The European Central Bank has imposed a March 25 deadline on Cyprus to come up with proposals that will satisfy international creditors or face the risk of losing access to all emergency funds.



Cyprus bailout deal closer after MPs vote for bank shake-up


Tough love from the Head of the LEX column in the Financial Times - ** MUST READ **
It may be best to recognise this and go for an even more severe restructuring of the banking sector. At the minimum, Bank of Cyprus, the country's largest lender, would need to be resolved along with CPB.
The Cypriot MPs won't like any of this. But what is the alternative? Endless capital controls? Printing a parallel currency so people get Cypriot Pounds instead of euros from the cash machines? Or quitting the euro entirely?
There are no good options. But the longer it takes for Cyprus to get real, the greater the damage.


A Cypriot Nobelist Is 'Appalled' by the Proposed Bailout Bank Tax



What capital controls mean

This summary was circulating on the internet yesterday, before the vote. Of particular interest is the final point:

·         Restrictions in daily withdrawals
·         Ban on premature termination of time savings deposits
·         Compulsory renewal of all time savings deposits upon maturity
·         Conversion of current accounts to time deposits
·         Ban or restrictions on non cash transactions
·         Restrictions on use of debit, credit or prepaid debit cards
·         Ban or restriction on cashing in checks
·         Restrictions on domestic interbank transfers or transfers within the same bank
·         Restrictions on the interactions/transactions of the public with credit institutions
·         Restrictions on movements of capital, payments, transfers
·         Any other measure which the Finance Minister or the Governor of Cyprus Central Bank see necessary for reasons of public order and safety